Recorded events
Hail and wind recorded near Aliso Viejo
Hail is not common here, which is exactly why the days it has happened are worth writing down. Within ten miles of Aliso Viejo, on two days: 18 March 2024 and 5 October 2021.
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What the radar recorded
The most recent detection was on 18 March 2024, about 3 years ago. Radar sized the largest stone in that cell at about 0.5 inches, small, and unlikely on its own to have marked a sound roof. The nearest cell was about 6.8 miles away, which is close enough to be worth checking and far enough that it may have missed the house entirely.
| Date | Largest stone sized by radar | Nearest cell | Cells that day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 March 2024 | 0.5 in | 6.8 mi | 4 |
| 5 October 2021 | 1.0 in | 3.6 mi | 4 |
Wind
Over 5 years of daily records at this location, the highest modelled gust was about 54 mph, below the 58 mph severe threshold but well into the range that finds anything already lifted or loose. There were 24 days above 39 mph and 12 above 45 mph in that period, concentrated in January, February, and March.
| Date | Peak gust |
|---|---|
| 14 March 2024 | 54 mph |
| 29 October 2023 | 48 mph |
| 1 March 2023 | 45 mph |
| 25 February 2023 | 52 mph |
| 1 January 2023 | 47 mph |
| 12 April 2022 | 45 mph |
| 14 December 2021 | 45 mph |
| 11 October 2021 | 45 mph |
What to check afterwards
The ridge and the edges
Wind does not lift a roof from the middle. It gets under an edge — the rake, the eave, the ridge cap — and peels inward from there. Those are the places to look at from the ground with binoculars after a wind event, and they are the places a marginal roof gives up first.
Granules where they should not be
Look in the splash blocks and at the base of the downspouts. Granule loss concentrated in one area, rather than spread evenly, is the pattern that points at impact rather than at age.
What landed on it
Wind-blown debris causes a surprising share of storm damage, and it is the one kind of damage that is genuinely obvious once somebody looks.
The soft metal, first
Gutters, downspouts, vent caps, and any aluminium fascia are softer than the roof covering and dent before it marks. If there are no dents in the soft metal, there is very probably no impact damage on the shingles either. This is the check an inspector makes before getting on the roof, and you can make it from the ground.
Inside, before outside
The underside of the deck is the most honest surface on the whole house. It shows water that has not yet reached a ceiling, and it tells you roughly how long the water has been arriving.
Where these numbers come from
Hail detections come from NOAA NCEI’s Severe Weather Data Inventory (NEXRAD product nx3hail) within 10 miles of Aliso Viejo. Radar sizes hail in a storm cell; it does not observe what landed on any particular roof. Gust figures are daily maxima from the ERA5 reanalysis archive at this city’s coordinates, which is a model of the weather rather than a reading from an instrument in the neighbourhood. Both are useful for dates and for scale, and neither is evidence about your roof. Last refreshed 2026-08-31.
Storm damage questions
There was a storm near me. Do I have damage?
There is no way to know from the weather record, and this site does not claim otherwise. Two houses on one street come out of the same night in completely different condition. What a nearby storm gives you is a date and a reason to look — starting with the gutters and vent caps, which dent before shingles mark.
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