On 1 March 2023 the modelled gust at Aliso Viejo hit about 45 mph, strong enough to pull up shingles that were already loose or lifted at the edges, but well short of the 58 mph severe threshold that strips sound roofs outright.
What actually happened on 1 March 2023
According to the Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis archive, the daily maximum 10 m wind gust modelled at Aliso Viejo on 1 March 2023 was about 45 mph. That puts the day in the strong band: above the point where loose material starts moving, below the 58 mph severe threshold where intact shingles get torn off wholesale.
A 45 mph gust doesn't flatten a roof. It finds the weak points. Any tab that was already popped, any flashing edge already pulled back, any ridge cap with failed adhesive, that's what a day like this exposes. A roof in good shape generally rides it out without a mark.
What a 45 mph gust band does differently than a severe storm
Severe gusts above 58 mph lift shingles that are still properly sealed, because the wind force overcomes the adhesive strip itself. A 45 mph day doesn't do that. It works on shingles that have already lost their bond, through age, heat cycling, or a prior storm that cracked the seal without fully detaching the tab.
That distinction matters for figuring out whether a given gust day is worth a look. The storm record for Aliso Viejo lets you line up 1 March 2023 against other dates and see whether it was an outlier or a routine spring wind event for the area. For this one, it sits in the middle of the range, not the extreme.
Where to check on the roof after a day like this
Start at the ridge line. Ridge caps are nailed through the thinnest part of the shingle and are the first thing a 45 mph gust tests. Look for a cap sitting slightly higher than its neighbors or a visible gap at the seam.
Next check the rake edges, the sloped edges along the gable ends. These catch wind sideways rather than head-on, so a shingle here can lift at the corner without the rest of the course moving. Run a hand along the edge from the ground with binoculars rather than climbing. Finally check any pipe boots or flashing where metal meets shingle. Wind doesn't bend metal at 45 mph, but it can work a sealant bead loose that was already cracked from sun exposure.
Why the gust number is modelled, not measured on your street
The 45 mph figure comes from the Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis archive, which models conditions at the Aliso Viejo location rather than reading a gauge planted in a specific yard. It's a reanalysis dataset, built to compare one day against another over time, not a live mast reading from the street outside a given house.
That makes it useful for answering the broader question, whether 1 March 2023 was a day worth checking a roof after, but it won't tell you what a specific gust did to a specific tree or fence line. Local terrain, nearby structures, and roof orientation all shift the real number up or down from the modelled average.
What to do if you find lifted shingles or loose flashing
A single lifted shingle or loose cap after a 45 mph day is a repair, not a replacement, in most cases. Get it looked at before the next wind event works the gap wider or lets water in underneath.
A written request submitted through this service is put in front of local contractors that cover the Aliso Viejo ZIP code, automatically and in under 60 seconds, and no more than three of them can take it on from there. Ask whoever responds to look at the whole roof while they're up there, not just the spot you noticed from the ground.